I’ve been sharing about this topic over most of this year, and the latest news doesn’t hold any improvements – The State of Maryland is expecting about a $1 billion deficit in the current year, it’s expected to grow to $2.7 billion the next two years, and continues on a pace all the way to $5.9 billion by 2030 (only six years away). Those numbers are per year, so they stack on top of each other the more time goes by.

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The main squeeze comes from spending commitments made the last couple years combined with revenue stagnation – As reports from the Maryland Comptroller’s Office have revealed, the wage income, business income, and sales tax income have not been strong, and Maryland is lagging behind many other states in its exit from COVID-era disruptions. Here’s a Maryland growth outlook chart I picked up from Maryland’s Director of Bureau of Revenue Estimates, Mr. Robert J. Rehrmman at the Maryland Municipal League Fall Conference:

As you can see, Maryland is limping along at somewhere between 2-3% growth, and the component from Personal Income Tax (darker blue) is shrinking. This is nowhere near what’s needed to fund spending commitments, and is even further compounded by Maryland’s dependence on the federal sector as the specter of looming federal layoffs and cutbacks in federal contractor spending will drive a further stake in Maryland revenue sources.

Of course, my focus as a Councilman is on the impacts to Laurel, and as a City, we’re currently beginning our annual budgeting process headed up by the Mayor’s Office and driven by the Budget & Personnel Department. The City team is assessing risk exposure, stress testing funding, and evaluating spending priorities. And as a Councilman, my focus is to help contribute to the team conversation with the aim that we don’t find ourselves in a situation similar to the State. The full numbers aren’t yet available for Council review, but know that it is definitely top of mind. And please feel free to share your thoughts, questions, and observations into the process.